The Greater Phoenix Chamber recently released the Q3 Arizona Business Indexâ„¢ (ABIâ„¢), powered by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI). The study measures and interprets the health of the Arizona economy from the perspective of the Arizona consumer.

"We weren’t surprised that all categories except economic optimism and credit card debt saw declines, “said Todd Sanders, president and CEO, Greater Phoenix Chamber. "We know consumers are still concerned about inflation and we largely saw an increase in negative sentiments this quarter. We hope to see the market stabilize in the new year and give consumers a break on everyday expenses such as gas and food prices.”

Key highlights on all categories are below:

Consumer Confidence

· Consumer sentiment declined from 71.0 to 69.1, a drop of 1.9 between Q2 and Q3, representing the fifth consecutive quarterly decline since the last increase from Q1 to Q2 2021.

· Confidence dropped by 1.9 for Millennials, 1.9 for Gen Z, and 3.3 for Gen X.

· Confidence dropped from Q2 to Q3 for Urban and Suburbanites, but increased by 3.8 for rural residents.


Housing & Automobile Index

• After peaking in April at 117.8, the Housing Index dropped precipitously in Q2 before stabilizing modestly in Q3.

• Nearly all the drop of 7.38 between Q2 and Q3 was experienced in the large decline between April and May; Q2 experienced wide variations, hitting the peak and trough of the past 12 months.

• More than two-thirds of consumers in Arizona indicate the current time is a bad time for home purchases; change in sentiment appears to have turned in May with near-identical increases in negative sentiment and decreases in positive sentiment. Q3 experienced flat conditions.

• While the percentage of consumers planning to purchase a home in the next 12 months declined in Q3 after a modest increase from June to July, the percentage of consumers uncertain jumped from its low of 18% in June.

• The Automobile Index, like the Housing Index, dropped significantly in Q2 after a sizable increase in April.

• The percentage of consumers stating at the time of the interview that it was a bad time to purchase an automobile reached its peak in the past year of 62% in July after four consecutive months of increases. The remainder of Q3 witnessed modest declines in pessimism, dropping by 2 points in August and September.


Economic Optimism

· The Economic Optimism Index increased slightly by 1.8 points in Q3; consumer expectations on price changes seem to suggest perceptions towards inflation abating to some degree.


Job Satisfaction

• After two straight months of declines in Q2, the Job Satisfaction Index increased in July and August, before dropping and matching its lowest point in the past 12 months.

• Job Satisfaction & Security were flat in Q3; Satisfaction dropped sharply in September.


Credit Card Debt

• The percentage of consumers that believe their credit card debt will decrease in the next 12 months increased by nearly 6 points from Q2 to Q3, representing the largest increase in that metric by far based on quarterly change since Q1 of 2021.

• Nearly one-third of consumers increased debt in the past 12 months, though positive about the future.

“Although 4 in 5 consumers still expect to see prices increase, there was a sizeable drop in the share of consumers with this sentiment from Q2 to Q3, which entertains the question, “are consumer perceptions about inflation changing?” said Mike Noble, OHPI’s Chief of Research.

For information on how to obtain access to the Arizona Business Index, visit phoenixchamber.com/abi

Methodology: The survey was completed online by OH Predictive Insights from July 5th – September 28th from an Arizona general population sample. The data applied post-stratification on age, gender, region, ethnicity and education level that reflects latest Census data. The sample size was 1,800 completed surveys, with a MOE of ± 2.31%.

About Arizona Business Index â„¢ (ABIâ„¢)
The Arizona Business Index â„¢ (ABIâ„¢) is a barometer of the health of the Arizona economy from the perspective of the Arizona consumer. This extensive statewide consumer sentiment survey provides an accurate pulse on the key indicators that drive the economy and delivers expert insight into consumer confidence to help aid in decision making. The index is based on 'consumers' perceptions of business conditions, personal finances, and buying conditions. Follow ABI on Twitter @AZBusinessIndex

About the Greater Phoenix Chamber
Representing 2,400 businesses across the Greater Phoenix region, the Greater Phoenix Chamber promotes regional prosperity by serving as a catalyst for economic vitality and strong communities. The Chamber pursues this mission by collaborating with business, political and community leaders to grow the regional talent pool, create a regional approach to economic development and drive a pro-Arizona agenda.

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and corporate clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.